Mainz vs Bayern: 5 things we learned from Bayern’s surprise defeat

On Saturday, Bayern traveled to face Mainz. On paper, it looked like a routine match for die Roten, who are all set to win their ninth straight league title. Mainz, meanwhile, sit in a solid 12th spot. Bo Svensson’s side aren’t in danger really of relegation, but they aren’t going to qualify for a European football spot, either, so for all intents and purposes, this looked set to be advantage Bayern.

Or was it? Clearly not. By the time the match finished, it was Mainz who had picked up all three points, while reigning champs Bayern will have to wait another week to try to lift their ninth consecutive trophy.

So what did observations did we pick up from Bayern’s surprise 2-1 loss this Saturday? Let’s have a look.

1. Robert Lewandowski facing a desperate battle to break Gerd Muller’s record

The Polish ace, 32, did not look at his very best in Saturday’s tie, but still featured nonetheless, raising questions about why Hansi Flick risked him at all. It was very obvious – the player himself is hoping to break Gerd Muller’s long-standing record. Prior to the match, Lewandowski had netted 35 times, but had missed four weeks due to a knee injury sustained whilst on international injury. On paper, this is a match that Bayern should have been able to win without him, but it’s clear he’s rushed his return back as he needs to score five goals to match Muller’s record and six to break it.

With the EURO tournament around the corner, is Lewandowski taking a huge risk? He’s a brilliant player and certainly could have another opportunity to do so next season. On the other hand, it’s understandable, especially as he’s so painfully close to breaking it. He now has 36 goals and needs to net four more in three games. Certainly, he’s capable of doing this, but fans will hope it will not come at too high a cost for the player who was cruelly (and bizarrely) denied the right to win the Ballon d’Or last season by COVID-19.

2. Manuel Neuer has really lost his touch

Things haven’t been going well for the German World Cup star keeper for quite some time, and as harsh as it may sound, Neuer has been going downhill for years. Cracks first started to show at EURO 2016 and really came to light at the 2018 World Cup. Many wondered why Joachim Low opted to keep him in between the posts as the no. 1 choice, but nothing changed, and it will be interesting to see what happens this summer at club level.

Yes, Neuer was the no. 1 option as Bayern romped to the Treble last season, but keep in mind, the Champions League was modified due to COVID-19. And Bayern’s attack is so strong that even if they do concede a few, they can more or less cancel it out. Against Barcelona, they simply blitzed their opponents, and Barcelona also haven’t been as impressive in Europe lately, either. Domestically, Bayern are still ahead of most other sides, meaning they generally do have some wiggle room for the most part.

Except not on Saturday, when they were caught unawares. Well, Neuer. Mainz’s first goal was down to an error on the 35-year-old’s part, where he was caught napping in the third minute, allowing the hosts to grab an easy effort, and for the second goal, failed to deal with a header off a free kick. Lewandowski’s late goal ended up being nothing but a consolation.

3. Bo Svensson has really brought in great fortunes – as Mainz are on their best run ever

It’s pretty amazing that before Svensson’s arrival, Mainz had lost all six of their opening games, and then went on to pick up a measly six points from their first 13 games. Now, under Svensson’s tenure, they’d picked up 25 points from 16 matches prior to Bayern’s arrival, and that included four wins from their last five games. With the win over Bayern, they’ve now gone seven unbeaten, with five wins, and more notably, ensured they continue to stay ahead of the drop zone – despite Cologne also winning in this round. Five points should indeed be enough to make sure that Mainz avoid the drop, and that’s an impressive showing considering that they were in the drop zone at the start of this season. They now are on their best run ever, surpassing the six unbeaten that they’d strung together from November to December 2015.

4. Stats don’t mean much in football…well, not all the time

Yes, stats are important, but as football shows time and time again, it’s an unpredictable beast. That’s what makes it indeed the beautiful game. Prior to this tie, Mainz had beaten Bayern just one in their last 18 prior meetings (D2 L15). In addition, Bayern had won all eight of their last eight trips to the Opel Arena, scored a whopping 20 goals in just their last four meetings…one gets the point. In short, this match screamed advantage Bayern, and despite Mainz enjoying a purple patch of form, it seemed like the best the hosts could hope for was to try to perhaps prevent Bayern from winning the league title on their turf.

But flash-forward 90 minutes later, and it was die Nullfunfer celebrating an unlikely win. And that’s what football really is all about – the underdogs pulling off those surprise upsets much to the delight of fans and neutrals alike.

5. Could this give Leipzig a life-line?

It has been previously said that no team have been able to overcome a seven point deficit to win the title, but as noted previously, stats aren’t the final deciding factor in football, either. Leipzig have been dogged in their pursuit of Bayern all season, and at one point, observers thought that Julian Naglesmann’s side had done enough to close the gap.

Ironically, Bayern now have done what they do best – snatch the best talent from their rivals – and now Naglesmann will be coaching Bayern next season. That’s one smart way to make sure that Leipzig don’t dare attempt to challenge die Roten for the league title anytime soon. For now, the league title, once previously assumed to be secured in Munich, is tentatively still up for grabs. If Bayern falter at Gladbach and Leipzig can get the better of Dortmund in just over a week’s time – things will get a lot more interesting, and yes, Leipzig just may be given what would be a very interesting late gift in this season’s title race.